Amid the political conventions of the last weeks, the markets hit records highs but slid back to end the month. Economic news was mixed and political developments didn’t seem to have a material effect. The Dow was up 2.8% for July after reaching a record 18,622 on July 26. The S&P was up 3.6% for […]
Author: David Simpson
3Q SCM Market Review
Here the latest client newsletter. For a PDF version, click here Newsletter16Q3.
3Q Forecast Survey Summary
SCM’s Quarterly Consensus Survey, conducted at the beginning of the third quarter, saw real GDP forecast consensus slide further to 2.2 percent for 2016 and 2.3 for 2017. The continued below average GDP growth is disappointing but chances of recession are still low due to strong consumer spending and solid labor markets. Industrial production is […]
3Q Economic Forecast Survey
The following is a more detailed quarterly version of the annumal US forecast survey published above.
3Q Industrial Sector Review and Outlook
The Brexit vote caught the market off-guard and though recovered nicely, Brexit left more questions than answers with resolution far in the distance. Business in Britain will not come to a complete stop and the exposure of most US firms appears to be limited. It’s too early to make sector changes so investors should stay […]
Markets Hit New Highs As Terror Grips Globe
The week ended on upbeat in spite of the tragedies, which is an indication of the resiliency of the markets.
Markets End First Half on Upbeat
US equity market recovered nicely from Brexit to finish the second quarter mostly in the black. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.4% while the S&P was up 1.9%. Small caps were up even more in the quarter with Russell 2000 clocking an impressive 3.4% but the tech laden Nasdaq was off 0.6%. The […]
Decisions Need To Be Made Before Smooth Brexit
After the Conservatives select a new prime minister sometime in September, several financial and structural issues will have be addressed before progress is made on a smooth Brexit. The financial decisions include phase out of UK’s EU budget contributions and what to to with joint research projects slated to end after Brexit. What are they […]
Brexit Outlook Lacks Coherence
Initial analysis on Britain’s exit from the EU has been all over the map and has more to do with the personal biases of the prognosticator than substance. I think we need to know who the next prime minister will be (Johnson, May or Gove?) and allow the other leaders time to hammer out positions. Meanwhile, financial […]
Scratching the Surface of Brexit
Seems hard to believe Britain actually voted to leave the European Union. It opens up a can of a hundred worms such as myriads of new political and financial accords to be renegotiated, new immigration policies established and opens new internal divisions among the nations of the UK. Though ground zero was the UK and the plummeting pound, implications […]
