Initial analysis on Britain’s exit from the EU has been all over the map and has more to do with the personal biases of the prognosticator than substance. I think we need to know who the next prime minister will be (Johnson, May or Gove?) and allow the other leaders time to hammer out positions.
Meanwhile, financial markets will have to simmer while political consensus is reached and corporate leaders can plan and execute under the new contours. The speed of departure is at issue with France demanding a quick and punitive exit while Germany wants to take time and get it right.
The US economy which remains healthy will do OK while waiting as it did through the Greek crisis. Worries are strengthening dollar, sagging business confidence and tightening financials conditions. Households will enjoy cheaper imports, grander European vacations and lower mortgage rates.
Forecasting politics and economics is difficult even in the best of times. Best to relax and let things play out.
